The year 2024 is considered the most impactful for the cryptocurrency market. We are already seeing major signs of the next bull run, such as the much-awaited approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, pre-halving spikes in Bitcoin price, and anticipation around Ethereum ETFs. In addition, Bitcoin just reclaimed the $50,000 price mark on January 12 for the first time after December 2021.
The recently changed market dynamics have set much anticipation around the cryptocurrency bull run to be started in 2024. As usual, Bitcoin will be the trendsetter, and all other altcoins will follow it. According to some popular Bitcoin traders, this next Bitcoin bull run is expected to continue until 3rd or 4th quarter of 2025.
While halving remains a leading catalyst for the upcoming momentum, there are also several other factors closely aligning to push Bitcoin beyond its limits.
Bitcoin Price Factors For the 2024 Bull Run
Bitcoin is nearing its fourth halving, and the four-year cycle has come to a place where the BTC price usually sees a breakout. Numerous crypto analysts have forecasted different prices under different scenarios, commonly suggesting a new all-time high.
Let’s elaborate on all the factors one by one which will have a direct or indirect impact on Bitcoin price;
ETF Inflows
The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year in January. It includes several leading finance giants such as BlackRock, Fidelity, VanEck, Invesco, Grayscale, and others. The long-anticipated ETF approval was expected to drive a huge Bitcoin price pump, but it faded away in the air. Several analysts said the ETF news was already priced in as it was hanging over the market for nearly the past 2 years. However, there is also a group of analysts who believe that the actual ETF inflow is yet to be filled in the Bitcoin market.
We are already seeing huge inflows in Bitcoin ETFs, which accumulated over 200k BTC within a month. This amounts to approximately $9.6 billion, and it averages nearly $320 million in daily inflows. If these numbers are sustained until the end of 2024, the ETFs will already have approximately 2.4 million BTC. To remind that Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million, the funds held by Bitcoin ETF issuers will represent more than 10% of the supply. Aren’t these numbers exciting enough to push Bitcoin price toward an unimaginable spot?
Bitcoin Halving
The fourth Bitcoin halving is estimated to occur on the 19th of April. It will reduce block mining rewards to 3.125 BTC from the current reward of 6.25 BTC per block. It also means that the flow of new BTC entering the circulating supply will slow down; this major change in BTC supply dynamics results in the bullish catalyst for the bull run.
However, this halving could make a difference this time. In the past few years, the Bitcoin mining profitability has decreased to its lowest level. This could make it hard for miners to operate efficiently.
Halving usually leaves a positive impact on BTC price, and investors are hopeful over the repetition of history. If it provides the same results as every time, the breakout in Bitcoin could last longer and much higher than expected.
All-Time High Anticipation
The most overseen aspect of Bitcoin price is its all-time high (ATH), which tends to occur every 4-year cycle. The current all-time high is $68,780, which was recorded in November 2021. Most of the Bitcoin price speculation reports depend on the previous and next highs.
In the previous bull run, Bitcoin reached outbursting gains, which were gated by an unexpected and disgraced crash of the FTX exchange. Analysts believe that Bitcoin could have risen much more than its all-time high in 2021 if such a crash had not happened. It is said that Bitcoin could go much higher than what is expected this time.
Supply Scarcity
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a remarkable demand for BTC amid the most bullish catalyst of Bitcoin halving. As the trillions of dollars of traditional finance players are now exposed to Bitcoin, it will be a key factor in deciding Bitcoin’s future stance for the next couple of years.
A report by Glassnode showed that the Bitcoin supply has gotten tight, with nearly 30% of BTC not moved in the past five years and 70% not moved for over a year. This data indicates that the majority of buyers have no intention to sell anytime soon. Such a scenario has created a supply shortage in the market; hence, the demand is fueled.
Cyclic Gains
Bitcoin goes through an uptrend cycle every 4 years where the BTC price peaks at the top. This usually correlates to the halving that significantly affects the BTC supply and demand dynamics. The previous cycles have provided astonishing returns of 12,000% from 2014 to 2017 and 2000% from 2017 to 2021. Both are significantly lower than the first cycle, where Bitcoin went up from below $1 to $1,042 in 2014.
However, the new top to be created in later 2024 or 2025 could outpass the previously recorded gains in 4 yearly cycles. This sentiment is pushed forward on a theory that if crypto exchange FTX had not got crashed, BTC price could have reached much higher in the last cycle. Most of the BTC price predictions for this next bull run are above $100,000 and even higher.
Also read: Here Are Price Predictions For Top 5 Cryptocurrencies For 2024
Conclusion
This cycle is led by the institutions and some of the biggest asset managers, including BlackRock and Fidelity. There is also some major news of crypto adoption hanging over the head. It includes crypto payment integration on Twitter (X), as the company has already acquired the required license in August 2023.
The historical movements in Bitcoin price suggest that every bull run kicks off during and after two months of halving. Recent market reports suggest that Bitcoin has already entered a phase where it has started showing initial gains.
FAQs
Q1. How high can the Bitcoin price surge in 2024?
Ans: Analysts believe that Bitcoin price could go higher than $100,000 in the next bull run of 2024. However, it will depend on market sentiments.
Q2. What could push Bitcoin prices higher in 2024?
Ans: Two of the major factors that can push Bitcoin’s price higher in 2024 are increased Bitcoin ETF inflows and Bitcoin halving.
